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What a hero sees, global institutions look forward to the 2021 photovoltaic market

In 2020, the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics will be close to 140GW, an increase of 18% year-on-year.

In 2021, more than 130 countries around the world have proposed a "zero carbon" or "carbon neutral" climate goal, the United States has returned to the Paris Agreement, Europe has revised the "2030 Climate Goal" to reduce emissions to 55%, and Japan has proposed 2050 carbon. neutralize. Clean energy represented by photovoltaics is facing unprecedented opportunities, but it is also facing the challenges of the 2021 epidemic and various price increases.

Under the global dual-carbon goal, can new photovoltaic installations still bring surprises to the industry?

In this regard, China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), European Solar Power Association (SPEu), American Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA), IHS, PV Infolink, BNEF and many other institutions have recently once again forecasted new global photovoltaic installations in 2021. 

1. CPIA-160GW

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) proposed at the China Photovoltaic Industry Review and Outlook Conference on July 22 that the global photovoltaic new scale in 2021 is predicted to be 150-170GW.

CPIA believes that China's photovoltaic industry is at a new stage of development of "carbon peak, carbon neutrality, and de-subsidy". New energy consumption guarantee, grid-connected diversified guarantee and competitive allocation mechanism will give China a conservative estimate of new installed capacity in 2021. Reach 55GW, optimistic estimate will reach 65GW.

In combination with the new energy deployment policies of countries around the world, CPIA believes that the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will be between 150-170GW in 2021, an increase of more than 10% over last year.

2. Solar Power Europe – 163 GW

The European Solar Power Association (Solar Power Europe) believes that global solar power installed capacity will reach 163 GW in 2021, and the largest increase will be seen in 2022, reaching 203 GW. Thereafter, there will be an increase of 225 GW in 2023, 239 GW in 2024, and 266 GW in 2025.

Solar Power Europe stated that the cumulative installed capacity of global photovoltaics in 2022 will easily surpass the 1TW (terawatt) milestone and will exceed the scale of 2TW in 2025.
3. SEIA & Wood Mac – 148GW
In the first quarter of 2021, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States exceeded 5GW, reaching a record high over the same period in history, allowing the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States to exceed the 100GW milestone.
On June 15, the latest forecast jointly issued by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie showed that the new installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States is expected to reach 25GW in 2021, and the global new installed photovoltaic capacity will exceed 148GW.
In general, SEIA's forecast of installed capacity growth in the United States is relatively stable, but it is a relatively conservative estimate for the global PV new installed capacity forecast.
4. IHS Markit-158GW
In early January, IHS Markit had predicted that ☞☞ the global installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2021 will be 158GW. At the beginning of June, Edurne Zoco, CEO of IHS Markit's Clean Energy Division, while discussing the main trends in clean technology so far in 2021, said that the solar industry has not been greatly affected by COVID-19, but the price increase and rising freight rates have been increasing since the beginning of this year. Putting photovoltaics under great pressure, manufacturers can only pass part of the cost to customers.
If there is a more favorable pricing and logistics environment in the second half of 2021, IHS Markit will maintain its forecast for the year-on-year growth of solar installations, but believes that the annual growth will be lower than previously expected.
5. PV Infolink – 155 GW
A few days ago, PV Infolink released the latest global demand overview. The forecast for new photovoltaic installations in 2021 is close to that of the beginning of the year, with an expectation of 155-160GW. To be precise, PV Infolink prefers a lower limit of 155GW.

In PV Infolink's view, high module prices will cause the grid connection time limit of affordable projects to be delayed to next year, and China's domestic demand will not be as strong as expected at the beginning of the year. It is only because other regions around the world have significantly increased compared to last year, such as the United States and India, so PV Infolink maintained its forecast at the beginning of the year, but the lower limit. Especially for China's new photovoltaic installed capacity, PV Infolink is only optimistic about 50GW, which has a certain gap with CPIA's conservative estimate of 55GW.

6. BNEF – 161~204GW

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) has the largest expected number span, ranging from 161 to 204 GW.

In January this year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance released the "Energy Transition Investment Trend Report" that the decline in photovoltaic module prices in 2021 will help photovoltaics reach a record high of 151-194 GW in 2021.

A month later, BNEF raised its expectations for 2021 again, believing that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2021 will exceed 200 GW, which will be a record year for photovoltaic power generation.

Not long ago, BNEF released the 2021 version of "New Energy Ourlook", pointing out that if net zero emissions are to be achieved by 2050, an average of 455GW of new photovoltaic installations will be needed each year in the next ten years, and an average of 632GW of solar energy will be installed each year in the next 30 years. Photovoltaic.

BNEF's expectations seem too optimistic. Now that half a year has passed, the crazy photovoltaic price increase still cannot stop BNEF's expectations of future installed capacity.
Source: Photovoltaic Test Network

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