Will the PV industry subsidies weaken in 2021? Four directions are clear, and some regions have achieved “one dime per kilowatt-hour”
We must know that as the "engine" of the new world economy, my country's performance in the photovoltaic industry in recent years is still remarkable. In addition to photovoltaic production reaching the world's leading level, a large number of photovoltaic companies have also sprung up. According to the official plan, between 2021 and 2025, photovoltaic power generation will enter a new phase. At the same time, it presents "four major characteristics", namely large-scale, high-proportion, market-oriented and high-quality development.
By all accounts, my country officially paid attention to the field of solar power generation in 1998. At that time, it was planned to build the first 3MW polysilicon battery and application system demonstration project, which surprised the market. It wasn't until 2001 that Suntech in Wuxi established a 10MWp (megawatt) solar cell production line and succeeded, and the gap between the domestic photovoltaic industry and the world began to narrow.
From 2003 to 2005, many companies began to establish solar cell production lines, and the prelude to the domestic photovoltaic field was further opened. It can be said that my country's progress in solar cell production is still very fast, because by 2008 the production reached 2600MW. In the context of the rapid development of the entire industry, the government actually gave directions for the next step of development. Mainly start from 4 directions, and strive to make photovoltaic power generation enter a new stage of development.
According to the idea of optimizing development with regional layout, supporting development with major bases, implementing development with action plans, and leading development with demonstration projects, we plan and guide photovoltaic power generation.
After having a general plan, it is natural to develop the layout of this line. In this regard, we will orderly promote the construction of centralized development power stations and multi-energy complementary clean energy bases. At the same time, a batch of photovoltaic power generation bases with a level of millions of kilowatts will be established. The consumption space in the central and eastern regions will be fully utilized to develop distributed photovoltaics.
Promote the consumption of high proportion of photovoltaic power generation
In this regard, more follow-up is needed. On the one hand, it is necessary to improve the flexible regulation power of the power system, and at the same time, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of the grid and the intelligent upgrade, so as to achieve a high proportion of photovoltaic power generation consumption.
Perfect supporting plan
This direction is already the last link. While improving the full guaranteed purchase system of renewable energy power generation, it is necessary to allow the price of photovoltaic power generation to form a mechanism. To ensure that the various programs can be coordinated, focus on strengthening the support of photovoltaic power generation and other aspects.
In the long run, the photovoltaic market is still very promising, because with the decline in the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour and the arrival of the "parity era", photovoltaic itself is a renewable energy source, and its penetration rate will increase greatly in the future. Some institutions predict that by 2040, the global photovoltaic power generation will account for 18.7% of the total power generation. We must know that this figure was only 2.2% in 2018, and the penetration rate of my country's photovoltaic power generation only increased to 3.1% in 2019. I believe there is no need to say how much room for improvement in the future.
Judging from domestic data, in the first half of 2021 alone, my country’s new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 14.11 GW, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. The installed capacity of household photovoltaics is 5.86 GW, a year-on-year increase of 280%. In addition to maintaining positive growth in the production side, the performance including exports is also very good. From January to May this year, the export volume of photovoltaic products reached about 9.86 billion US dollars, which is close to half of last year's. It can be seen that the domestic photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly.
However, in the past, the photovoltaic industry mainly relied on state subsidies, and the national unified pricing was adopted until 2012. The benchmark electricity price exceeds 1 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy intensity exceeds 0.6 yuan/kWh. The reason why such a high subsidy was given at that time was actually to promote the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry. From 2013 to 2018, the benchmark electricity prices began to be differentiated according to different categories. To put it bluntly, the subsidies were not as large as before.
From 2019 to 2020, only a few subsidies will be given, and market-based bidding will be used to expand the installed capacity. From the perspective of the subsidy intensity, it has fallen to less than 5 cents. Of course, this is not the end. According to official requirements, starting from 2021, the subsidy policy will gradually weaken in the market until it disappears.
After all, the state has been subsidizing this industry for 10 years. It is definitely unrealistic to rely on subsidies to develop the photovoltaic industry. With the return of photovoltaic power plants to market competition, the cost of photovoltaics has been greatly reduced compared to before.
Of course, for ordinary people, they may not understand what impact the photovoltaic industry will have on us. In fact, the distributed photovoltaic plus energy storage model can be widely used in homes, communities and commercial buildings. This kind of cheap and clean power resource is what countries around the world yearn for. Some countries and regions with abundant sunlight resources have now achieved "a dime per kilowatt-hour."
It is conceivable that if photovoltaic power generation is widely popularized in the future, the electricity cost of ordinary people may be further reduced. Moreover, compared with coal power generation, photovoltaic power generation is cleaner and more environmentally friendly, which is in line with the "carbon neutral" goal implemented by countries all over the world. According to industry insiders, photovoltaics will become a very competitive form of energy in the future, and the advantages of photovoltaics are cheap and environmentally friendly. Including companies engaged in the photovoltaic industry now, the future development prospects cannot be ignored.
Among them, the leading companies in the photovoltaic industry, Longi, Tongwei, and Zhonghuan, are all "leaders" in the industry. While bringing profits to enterprises through the layout of the photovoltaic field, it has further improved the conversion efficiency of domestic photovoltaic power generation.
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